Removing the Second Sino-Japanese War does not necessarily erase the 1939 fighting between Japan and the Soviet Union. That Soviet-Japanese clash remains plausible in this timeline. Its outcome is still part of Stalin's strategic calculation and could affect the timing of the Soviet move into Poland. Stalin would evaluate the new Anglo-Japanese coalition against the memory of a recent war in the Far East.
Notable Point · 57:52-58:36
The 1939 Soviet-Japanese war still shapes Stalin
Even without war in China, the 1939 Soviet-Japanese conflict may still occur and affect Stalin's timing in Poland.