Southern France opens while Germany turns east

Within the counterfactual, an Italian withdrawal opens a route into southern France with little naval opposition. Free French, British Empire, and Japanese forces could land there while Germany faced the burden of defending and administering more French territory. Reinforcing that front would also present railway and supply difficulties. An Allied landing in Norway remains unattractive because of its difficult amphibious conditions. Holding Crete would put Romanian oil within bomber range, potentially adding to the pressure for Germany to seek Soviet oil. The projection anticipates an Allied landing in 1942 and American entry after further incidents between neutrality patrols and German forces. By this stage, so many earlier events have changed that the proposed course of the war carries substantial uncertainty.