Notable Point ยท 37:12-39:06

A South China Sea demonstration needs tankers

A west-southwest show of force toward the Philippines and Indochina is plausible only if fast tankers are gathered and reassigned in advance.

Notes

The likely demonstration route runs west-southwest through the Philippine or Celebes Sea approaches toward Indochina and the South China Sea. That path keeps the fleet closer to friendly defenses and support while avoiding the greater exposure of a northern approach through Japanese submarine patrol routes. The historical fleet lacked enough tankers at Pearl Harbor to sustain such a movement. The necessary oilers existed, but they were committed to other assignments and would have needed to be gathered in advance. Making the scenario work therefore requires an earlier logistical decision to concentrate fuel support and reprioritize tasks, not merely a last-minute order for battleships to sail.