Q&A · 5:56-9:01

Why coast guards can complicate South China Sea escalation

US Coast Guard deployment could make Chinese gunfire appear disproportionate, while leaving the cutters exposed to forceful encounters with larger regional vessels.

Question

How might a confrontation develop after China authorized force at sea and the United States sent coast guard vessels to the South China Sea?

Short answer

Cutters could make a Chinese armed response look disproportionate, but their size and uncertain suitability for ramming leave them vulnerable in close encounters with larger coast guard vessels.

Notes

Sending US Coast Guard cutters creates a political difficulty for China because opening fire on a law-enforcement vessel could look disproportionate. The concern is that American cutters are smaller than the largest Chinese and Japanese coast guard ships. The National Security Cutter's suitability for deliberate ship-to-ship contact is also questioned: its patrol and counter-smuggling work does not necessarily demand a hull designed for ramming. Forceful contact is considered more likely than an exchange of gunfire. That makes hull strength and vessel size relevant to the risks of the deployment.