When Shinano's captain could know the carrier was lost

At what point before the 10:18 abandon-ship order should Shinano's captain have realized the carrier could not be saved?

It cannot be answered confidently without knowing what damage information reached the captain, in what form, and at what time.

Deciding when Shinano was beyond saving is a damage-control and information-flow problem. Reports may arrive late, remain incomplete, or be interpreted differently by optimistic and pessimistic officers. Without reconstructing what reached the captain before the 10:18 order, historians cannot name a reliable minute at which hope should have ended. The distinction separates hindsight about the carrier's loss from the commander's real-time knowledge aboard a sinking ship.