What if shell guns had been invented and made common before Trafalgar?
Short answerWooden fleets would be devastated, rapidly driving iron-and-teak protection and steam warships that might resemble early Warrior-type ironclads by 1805.
NotesExplosive shell is the forcing technology in this counterfactual because traditional wooden hulls cannot absorb its effects. Armour would become necessary well before its historical adoption. Heavier protection would then increase the need for mechanical propulsion, and Britain could draw on its industrial and steam-engine experience. Manufacturing limits might favour paddle propulsion over screw propellers. The result could still be a large, double-decked armoured steam fleet by Trafalgar.