The estimate gives China roughly seventy-two hours to seize Taiwan and consolidate its position before the operation becomes much harder to sustain. A rapid coup de main is treated as unlikely in this scenario, leaving the prospect of a prolonged campaign with continuing demands for supplies, protection and high sortie rates. Mines, submarines, aircraft losses and damaged airfields would compound those demands. Chinese logisticians would have to keep a contested bridgehead supplied while other governments gained time to organize aid or intervention. Continued disruption of trade would add international pressure for the fighting to end.
Chapter · 1:45:18-1:53:24
Why the first seventy-two hours matter
A rapid seizure might outrun foreign reaction, but a campaign that lasts beyond three days becomes a grinding contest of lift, sorties, and political endurance.