Britain's worst case begins with Germany laying only the minefields it considers essential and launching as soon as it believes the RAF sufficiently weakened. The Royal Navy would remain a major obstacle even under that favorable assumption. Some powered barges might reach the beaches while unpowered barges, supplies and other parts of the formation suffered heavy losses. Skilled troops and favorable landing positions could produce local successes, although an advance as far as Reigate appears impossible and even the capture of Folkestone doubtful. Flatter recreational beaches appear more plausible landing sites than defended harbors. Barges waiting offshore for the tide would remain stationary targets for hours, and illumination flares could help defenders engage them at night.
Chapter · 54:25-57:03
Britain's worst case: limited German landings
An early German launch might put troops ashore, but losses at sea and heavily defended ports would restrict their prospects.