Russian reconstruction and the risk of nuclear fragmentation

A 2022 exchange argues that Russia would have to rebuild military capacity despite financial and technological constraints, while state breakup would create a graver nuclear-custody problem.

Question

Could Russia afford to rebuild after the war, and what if it instead began to break apart?

Short answer

Rebuilding would be necessary but difficult, while fragmentation would raise the far more dangerous question of who controlled regional nuclear weapons.

Notes

Russia could scarcely afford not to rebuild after the war, even though finding money and technology would be difficult. Political fragmentation would be more dangerous than a simple decline to middle-power status. Regional authorities could inherit control over parts of a very large nuclear arsenal. This is explicitly speculative, but it identifies custody, command and proliferation as the central international risks when a nuclear-armed state loses cohesion.