Q&A · 3:01:45-3:04:32

Could Russia afford postwar military modernization?

Russia's ability to rebuild depends on financing, an organization able to absorb recruits, and a decision about what its modernized force should become.

Question

Could Russia afford to modernize its military after a status-quo or slight victory in Ukraine?

Short answer

Probably not at the required scale; the economy, losses, training burden, and uncertainty over the future force model all work against a rapid rebuild.

Notes

Postwar modernization would require an organization capable of absorbing recruits as well as money for equipment. The assessment here is that wartime depletion has damaged that organization and makes rebuilding harder. Russia would also have to choose whether to follow Chinese or European practice or develop a distinct domestic model. The suggestion that losses leave fewer soldiers to train is bleak irony about the cost of the war, not evidence of a successful modernization strategy.