Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 34:09-34:51

Russia's different Baltic and Black Sea fleet problems

In this 2022 assessment, Russia could not willingly surrender the Black Sea Fleet, while NATO expansion forced a choice between Baltic concentration and smaller fast forces.

Baltic FleetBlack Sea FleetNATORussian Navy
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Question

What would Russia do if it could no longer afford both its Baltic and Black Sea fleets?

Short answer

It would fight to retain the Black Sea Fleet, while the Baltic Fleet might have to become either much stronger or smaller and faster.

Notes

Russia was unlikely to allow its Black Sea Fleet to disappear because that force serves interests Moscow would regard as essential. The Baltic presents a different challenge. Finland and Sweden moving toward NATO would sharply worsen the fleet's operating environment. The remaining options were to concentrate enough power to contest the sea or rely on smaller, faster units with a better chance of surviving within a constrained theater.