Risk Fleet deterrence versus submarine war

Risk Fleet theory promised that a German battle fleet could deter Britain by making victory too costly. Tirpitz expected the Royal Navy's losses to expose Britain to attack by France, Russia, or the United States, but the deterrent depended on those unspecified powers finishing the job. German fleet-building instead helped push Britain toward alignment with France and Russia, undermining that premise and reversing an older pattern of British cooperation with Prussia against continental rivals. Holtzendorff's later approach attacked British commerce rather than the battle fleet, yet it too depended on assumptions about Britain's reaction. Together, the strategies show the limits of naval plans that require an opponent to behave exactly as predicted.