Would Germany still attack the Soviet Union when Norway constrains its logistics?
Short answerPossibly, because Nazi leadership may still overreach, but the loss of oil, ore, and naval freedom makes a southern diversion or delayed campaign more plausible.
NotesA sensible German leadership might seek peace when hemmed in by the loss of Norwegian access and pressure on oil and raw materials. Hitler's regime is unlikely to behave that cautiously after its victories in France and the Low Countries. A turn south toward the Mediterranean remains possible, while the Soviet decision is uncertain. Whatever Hitler chooses, damaged fuel supplies and the time needed to build eastern roads and railways make the historical Barbarossa timetable harder to reproduce.