Would war in the Pacific come before war in Europe?

How would a Tsingtao war change the course and timing of World War II?

It would probably produce an eastern war first and delay any European war, while the absence of the Tripartite Pact leaves Germany and Italy outside Japan's camp.

The Far Eastern war would probably begin first, with a European war following later if it still occurred. The Tripartite Pact was not yet in place in early 1939, so Germany and Italy would not inherit an automatic alliance with Japan. Joining a visibly losing Japan against Britain, France, the Netherlands, and probably the United States would be unattractive. An anti-Japanese coalition already at war and mobilized could delay a European conflict until after the Pacific settlement. This remains a contingent strategic forecast, and war in Europe is still possible.