How the invasion could affect Putin's authority

Could the invasion of Ukraine threaten Putin's authority or make Russia more dangerous?

Its effect depended on the outcome. Failure could weaken Putin and sanctions could add pressure, although a cornered regime might become more dangerous.

This assessment, recorded during the invasion's opening days, made the political consequences dependent on the campaign's outcome. A costly failure could threaten Putin's authority, while a clear success could strengthen it. Sanctions and changes in European energy policy could add pressure over time. A weakened regime might also become more dangerous, creating the strategic risk compared here to a wounded bear.