Other technical routes were available, but a counterfactual beginning in 1930 has to work with methods that had already demonstrated practical promise. Japanese government procurement and industrial selection are characterized here as conservative, with little appetite for gambling on less proven alternatives. The two established German processes are therefore the most credible starting choices. Technical possibility alone does not determine the scenario. The institutions making the decision also have to be willing to adopt the process.
Notable Point · 15:15-16:06
Why Japan would select proven processes
Other methods existed, but a 1930 program constrained by conservative Japanese procurement would favor mature German processes.