Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 49:08-50:04

Short-war assumptions undercut pre-1914 naval arms control

A proposed pre-First World War naval treaty runs into the political belief that any conflict would be short, making durable limits unattractive to the competing powers.

French NavyImperial German NavyImperial Japanese NavyImperial Russian NavyNaval Arms RaceNaval TreatiesRoyal NavyShort War AssumptionWorld War I
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Question

Could the major powers have agreed to Washington-style naval limits before the First World War?

Short answer

Probably not. The proposed balance was technically imaginative, but contemporary short-war expectations gave the powers little reason to accept durable common limits.

Notes

The question proposes common limits for Germany, Russia, France, Japan, and Britain, with uncapped smaller craft and fleets tailored to regional opponents. It tries to preserve British freedom outside the Baltic and North Sea while giving continental navies affordable force ceilings. The arrangement is a historical fantasy because governments expected any major war to be over quickly, famously by Christmas. Even technically plausible limits fail when states do not share the threat assumptions needed to accept long-term restraint.