In the PQ 17 episode, the Royal Navy saw signs that matched its worst-case scenario and applied the measures prepared for that threat. The Norwegian Campaign provides a similar comparison. A response designed for the extreme case may be justified when that case is real, yet it can be disastrous against a lesser or different move. Evidence can seem to confirm the scenario planners already fear. The lesson is to test what is actually happening before a familiar threat model dictates the response.
Notable Point · 46:18-47:09
PQ 17 and the danger of worst-case assumptions
PQ 17 shows how evidence that resembles a feared enemy move can trigger a response designed for an extreme scenario, even when the situation differs.