Procurement choices reflected an era when American power appeared unlikely to face open state challenge. In that environment, an advanced system designed for contested operations could be dismissed as an unnecessary Cold War inheritance. Conflict might persist in the shadows, but planners expected rational state actors to avoid openly challenging the United States or its allies. Wilhelm II provides the historical warning: before the First World War, he discounted repeated British warnings and convinced himself that Britain would stay out. The example shows how wars can begin when leaders reinterpret deterrent signals to fit their preferred outcome. The return of overt rivalry makes that earlier economy look less convincing and helps explain renewed interest in uncrewed carrier aviation.
Notable Point · 9:13-13:09
How 2013 threat assumptions shaped drone choices
A strategic detour uses Wilhelm II's misreading of British warnings to show why a less threatening post-Cold War outlook made an expensive long-range carrier drone seem unnecessary.