The alternative London Treaty requires only limited political changes to the interwar setting. The Wall Street Crash still occurs, while Stanley Baldwin replaces Ramsay MacDonald because Baldwin is presented as slightly more willing to pursue an armed peace. In the United States, Al Smith replaces Herbert Hoover, who is treated as offering little support to naval or defence spending. The ship totals therefore depend on plausible budget politics as well as treaty arithmetic.
Notable Point · 10:47-12:00
The political premises of an armed peace
The equitable-treaty counterfactual keeps the Wall Street Crash but assumes British and American governments somewhat more willing to fund armed deterrence.