Notable Point ยท 21:34-25:00

Planning for perfect serviceability

Tan No. 2's planners treated a one-in-seven reconnaissance result as if every moving part would perform perfectly.

Notes

The reconnaissance detachment supplied a harsh measure of available reliability: one usable aircraft from seven dispatched. A responsible plan would have scaled its assumptions to that demonstrated serviceability and support burden. Tan No. 2 instead required Japanese equipment and crews to work perfectly while assuming the enemy would respond poorly or not at all. Optimism turned known maintenance failures into operational risks that the plan ignored.