Norman Polmar's forecast assumes continued Udaloy and Sovremenny production as older destroyers retire. It projects roughly 45-50 ships by the mid-1990s, including about 16 Udaloys, 16 Sovremennys, and 15 Kashins, compared with about 65 active destroyers in the mid-1980s. The smaller force would have much stronger anti-submarine and anti-surface capabilities. Air defense presents a qualification: retiring older missile destroyers could reduce area coverage, although newer systems and electronics offered improvements in effectiveness and self-defense. Both current construction classes also retained large torpedo tubes and mine rails that US cruisers and destroyers had abandoned.
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Period analysts expected fewer but stronger destroyers
Polmar projected 45-50 Soviet destroyers by the mid-1990s, with greater combat capability despite a smaller fleet and possible losses in area air defense.