What happens if both sides at Pearl Harbor receive their best later-war weapons, aircraft, and training but retain the historical doctrine and surprise?
Short answerThe raid still succeeds broadly as it did historically because American unpreparedness prevents the improved force from using its advantages.
NotesThe counterfactual upgrades both sides' weapons, aircraft, and training while leaving doctrine unchanged. American forces would still be caught unready, so the raid is expected to have broadly the same result. A proposed British attack on the High Seas Fleet illustrates the same problem. Even a low hit rate could matter if ships in an apparently secure anchorage lacked internal torpedo nets.