Optimism bias and serviceability planning

The plan assumed that every Japanese component would work while the American defenders remained unprepared. Actual C6N experience gave a stark warning: only one of seven dispatched reconnaissance aircraft was serviceable at Truk after losses, defects, and inadequate support. That observed rate should have driven force sizing and logistics calculations. Planners treated it as an exception. The intended targets were the carriers that enabled American amphibious operations, so ignoring measured readiness left the raid dependent on ideal conditions.