Public and governmental reaction is central to the counterfactual, alongside the fate of the ships. If Germany never gets ashore, Norway may remain an armed but pro-British neutral. If German troops land, kill Norwegians, and are then expelled, Norway is likely to become an Allied combatant. That distinction determines whether British forces can openly use Norwegian bases or must work through a sympathetic neutral government. A government that tried to resume neutrality after expelling an invader would face severe domestic trouble because Norwegian casualties transform the political meaning of the war.
Chapter · 16:39-18:27
Two ways Norway can repel the invasion
The starting point distinguishes a failed German landing from a repulsed landing, because Norwegian neutrality or active Allied participation follows from that choice.