A navy cannot safely base construction policy on the hope that an adversary is slower or less competent. Capital ships take years to design and build, so a mistaken threat assumption cannot be corrected quickly after war begins. Planning against a plausible high level of enemy capability makes any later discovery of weakness a welcome advantage. Planning around presumed weakness creates the opposite asymmetry: if the enemy proves more agile than expected, ships and strategic options may be lost before new construction can respond.
Notable Point · 9:46-10:46
Naval planning must assume a capable opponent
Long warship construction cycles require planning against an opponent's plausible high capability rather than assuming institutional weakness.