What can NATO do to de-escalate Russian air-defense probing around Estonia?
Short answerCounterintuitively, reinforce Estonia and forward-deploy fighters in Sweden so the probes meet a credible response and become less attractive.
NotesThe proposed response adds air defence in Estonia and forward-deployed fighters in Sweden, where they could react quickly across the Baltic while remaining difficult to counter. The logic is counterintuitive: Russian sorties are intended to demonstrate resolve, and an unmistakable NATO capacity to respond can make continued probing less attractive. Reinforcement therefore serves de-escalation through deterrence rather than through passivity. Baltic geography makes Sweden a useful forward base for aircraft that must support Estonia without sitting directly on the most exposed frontier.