The prediction of continued peace rests partly on the treaty powers' initial reluctance to fight. Expanded fleets could make them feel more secure. Once each navy realized that its rivals were exploiting the same openings, however, its own apparent advantage would shrink. The resulting confidence in security is distinguished from confidence in winning a war of aggression.
Notable Point · 1:23:23-1:23:56
Why mutual cheating might discourage a war of aggression
Rival cheating could offset the apparent advantage of each navy's expansion while leaving it more secure.