The political consequences of Taranto Zero could arrive before an invasion of Italy. The counterfactual considers whether the combined loss of the fleet, defeat in North Africa, and a failed Greek campaign could unseat Mussolini. The king and royalist factions could appeal to the British and Japanese monarchies as restorers of constitutional government and seek to change sides. Neutrality is another option, with Germany lacking a significant troop presence in Italy at this stage. Its acceptance would depend on Britain and Japan. An Italian withdrawal early in 1941 would release more Mediterranean ships for Atlantic blockade and submarine hunting, while leaving German surface ships to face carrier attacks in port.
Notable Point · 1:43:18-1:46:31
Naval defeat could remove Mussolini without an invasion
Losing the battle fleet, North Africa, and Greece could let Italian royalists depose Mussolini and seek neutrality or a new alliance before Allied troops land in Italy.