Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 2:01:32-2:01:51

How many modern Black Swans would deter China?

A Black Swan-style concept would require numbers rather than a few exceptional ships, much like the Type 31 and proposed Type 32 programs.

Black Swan Class SloopsDeterrenceForce StructureRoyal NavyType 31 FrigateType 32 Frigate
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Question

How many modern Black Swan-type ships would be needed to make China think twice?

Short answer

A large number; the concept only works as a way to rebuild fleet numbers, not as a handful of high-end ships.

Notes

Deterring a major power would require many ships. The modern Black Swan idea was a fleet-rebuilding concept rather than a proposal for a tiny elite class. Its purpose was to restore numbers. The Royal Navy's Type 31 program and proposed Type 32 are offered as current parallels. The imagined design addresses the institutional problem of restoring a fleet with enough usable ships.