Will missile shortages and improving defenses cause naval guns, lasers, and railguns to dominate later actions in a major war?
Short answerMissile depletion makes a return to gunfire plausible because conventional shells can be replaced far more readily than complex guided weapons.
NotesThe exchange argues that neither side may sustain the missile expenditure of a major naval war. Early fleet actions might use missiles and carrier aircraft heavily, but replacement rates could soon leave ships sailing with many VLS cells empty. Conventional five-inch ammunition is much easier to manufacture in quantity, making gunfire more attractive as complex guided weapons become scarce. Lasers and railguns could extend both defense and offensive firepower if their electrical-power, development, and production problems are solved.