The memorandum acknowledged that war with the United States was a grave danger but argued that fear of it should not prevent use of a weapon promising victory. Holtzendorff expected too little American shipping, too few crews, and too little immediate military reach to alter the first critical months. He even suggested that the United States would join a British peace once submarine attacks disrupted American commerce. The forecast rested on a recurring assumption that Britain and America acted chiefly for financial reasons and would therefore yield to economic coercion. That reading neglected the political resolve, anger, and capacity for mobilization that unrestricted attacks could generate.
Chapter · 37:08-40:41
Misjudging American entry and Allied resolve
Holtzendorff expected American intervention to have little immediate effect and assumed economic pressure would overcome Anglo-American resolve before the United States could deploy decisive force.