Why a 1920s minor-power carrier war is hard to model

How would a mid-1920s to mid-1930s carrier war between minor powers affect later carrier development?

It would depend on the participants and aircraft, while limited carrier size and local doctrine could produce misleading lessons for the major navies.

The Royal Navy was effectively the only established carrier operator in the early 1920s, with American and Japanese development gathering pace later. A hypothetical South American contest could compare concentrated-strike and continuous-operations ideas, but small Hermes-sized carriers would make its lessons highly contingent. Which doctrine appeared to win would depend on whether a large strike penetrated defenses or repeated smaller operations kept functioning. Aircraft performance, carrier size, and the particular navies involved matter so much that major powers could easily draw the wrong universal lesson from a local war.