A shattered Italian battle fleet would change where Allied ships and troops were needed. Japanese, Australian, or other Empire formations could sustain the advance in North Africa or reinforce Greece without stripping the original offensive. Cruisers, destroyers, and submarines could attack Axis coastal supply traffic without intervention by Italian heavy ships, potentially ending the North African campaign in February or March 1941. A rapid Axis collapse could also loosen Vichy control in French North Africa and change the leadership of the Free French. In this forecast, Crete remains an Allied air base because the Italians cannot support the amphibious operation. Older battleships would be sufficient to contain a surviving Italian unit, releasing modernized Queen Elizabeth-class ships for Atlantic blocking duties. The larger Allied force could persuade Germany to postpone the twins' January sortie until May, concentrate a stronger force, or abandon the breakout.
Chapter · 1:26:33-1:36:35
Sea control isolates North Africa and protects Crete
With the Italian battle fleet disabled, Allied cruisers, destroyers, submarines, and troops can cut North African supply while heavy ships redeploy north.