Manchuria remains vulnerable to imperial partition

Would Japan still conquer Manchuria and fight the Second Sino-Japanese War?

Japan could still take Manchuria, especially if Britain saw the choice as Japanese or Russian control; a wider war depends on how the powers divide their spheres in China.

Britain might accept Japanese control of Manchuria as preferable to Russian expansion. Farther south, Japanese, British, and French spheres could constrain the shape of a wider conflict. Chinese sovereignty would carry little weight in that bargaining. Stability among imperial powers could therefore impose severe costs on the people whose territory they divide.