Do battleship fleet actions come down to a lucky hit?

Would the Japanese-versus-Queen-Elizabeth fleet action realistically come down to who landed a lucky shot first?

A lucky hit could decide it, but Japanese numbers and 16-inch guns make that hit more likely in daylight despite formation-speed limits.

A lucky shell could decide the action, but the opportunities are not evenly distributed. Six Japanese ships, including two Nagatos with 16-inch guns, create more chances to land a decisive hit in daylight. The formation is nevertheless constrained by its slowest ships, making it harder to control and limiting the faster vessels' freedom. Luck remains part of the outcome, while force composition and tactical conditions shape the probability behind it.