How might the Second World War have changed if Britain began 1939 with a large force of long-range maritime patrol aircraft?
Short answerThe aircraft would still need northern bases or overflight agreements, potentially drawing Norway out of neutrality, complicating Germany's invasion plans, and making Icelandic basing strategically necessary.
NotesThe counterfactual uses a patrol variant of a twin-engined medium bomber such as the Vickers Wellington. Range alone would not solve the problem because the aircraft still needed airfields and permission to operate across Norway or from Iceland. British operations on Norwegian soil could force an earlier alignment, raise Norwegian readiness, and make a German seizure much harder. Norwegian bases could also support British submarines operating toward the Baltic, while the loss of Norway would make an Icelandic base still more important.