The Japanese bomber units that destroyed Force Z were skilled and difficult to replace, so defeat by carrier fighters changes more than the survival of two ships. Their loss would weaken later anti-shipping operations just as Allied success encouraged further reinforcement. Resistance that costs trained aircrew and delays the Malayan advance therefore compounds over time. The scenario becomes too divergent for confident prediction after roughly April or May 1942.
Notable Point · 1:17:08-1:18:47
Bomber losses and logistics create compounding Japanese problems
Losing elite anti-shipping aircrew while the advance is already at its logistical limit could slow Japan long enough for Allied resistance to harden.