A public finding that Lexington and Saratoga exceeded their declared tonnage could have led other signatories to demand parity rather than start a war. Britain no longer had comparable conversion hulls, so its response could have been permission for new carriers near 30,000 tons. The counterfactual combines an Ark Royal-scale air group with protection resembling the later Illustrious class, capabilities that the larger legal displacement could accommodate together. Japan could also have claimed another large hull, while the United States would have had no matching response under the settlement. British debt repayment made extra spending unattractive, but a public status challenge could change that political calculation and erase the American advantage created by the conversions.
Chapter · 25:23-30:27
Lexington's tonnage breach risked the entire carrier settlement
Exposure of the Lexington-class displacement could have triggered compensating British and Japanese carrier construction and erased the American advantage.