Destroying Goeben removes the immediate reason to pursue the German squadron into Ottoman waters. The Ottomans might remain neutral longer, and Britain would have less incentive to improvise an early naval forcing of the straits. If intervention later became necessary, planners would have time to prepare a joint operation from the outset. The counterfactual thus changes not merely whether Gallipoli happens, but the sequencing, force mix, and political conditions under which it might be attempted.
Notable Point · 1:01:51-1:02:55
No Goeben means no rushed Gallipoli gamble
Without Goeben drawing Britain toward Constantinople, any later Dardanelles campaign would be more likely to begin as a planned army-and-navy operation after a clear Ottoman declaration of war.