Without the Korean War, how much later would NATO have recognised Soviet transonic aircraft and the importance of transonic performance?
Short answerProbably about one aircraft generation later.
NotesThe Korean War exposed Western forces directly to Soviet transonic aircraft and accelerated recognition of their performance. Without that combat experience, the panel estimates that NATO might have taken another aircraft generation to absorb the lesson. This is distinct from the war's naval effects because it concerns combat-driven technological learning in early Cold War aviation. The estimate is deliberately approximate rather than a claim that transonic development would otherwise have remained unknown.