German diplomats might negotiate a workable compromise only to have Kaiser Wilhelm II disrupt it through public grandstanding. The Army had a rational reason to favor naval limits because every additional fleet demand competed with land-force funding. That placed traditional Army elites against Tirpitz's Navy Laws and the Kaiser's personal identification with sea power. The counterfactual could humble the Kaiser or produce serious internal instability. Whether that might divert the path to the First World War remains outside the discussion.
Notable Point · 45:01-47:25
A treaty could intensify Germany's Army-Navy conflict
Army support for a spending ceiling could collide with Wilhelm II's prestige politics and Tirpitz's fleet program, creating an internal German crisis rather than stable restraint.