Mikawa's generation had watched Japan grow stronger after the Russo-Japanese War and gain further opportunities during World War I. The experience resembled a national version of the hot-hand fallacy: repeated success made continued success feel natural. Officers could then interpret defeat as an individual's error rather than evidence that the national system or command structure was failing. That confidence helps explain why the Imperial Japanese Navy struggled to recognize structural weaknesses before they compounded in wartime.
Notable Point · 3:41-7:41
How repeated success distorted Japanese judgment
Mikawa's generation had watched Japan rise continuously, encouraging officers to treat setbacks as personal errors rather than evidence of institutional weakness.