Japan's southern strategy without American sanctions leadership

Would Japan still adopt a southern strategy without the United States leading the sanctions regime, and would Britain press Japan while already fighting Germany?

He expects Britain to be firm but more cautious than the United States, while Japan would still turn south after the northern strategy failed and French weakness opened access to resource-rich territory.

Britain would probably take a forceful line toward Japan but avoid the furthest American measures while already fighting Germany. British leaders would want time to rebuild and retrain Far Eastern forces before accepting another war. Japan's strategic direction was not decided only by the final crisis of 1941: the failure of the northern option and events in 1940 had already made movement south more attractive. French weakness allowed Japan to secure positions without an initial major fight, while a mercantilist search for resources supplied the larger incentive. The timing and intensity of sanctions differed from the structural reasons Japan looked south.