Q&A ยท 16:39-19:38

Japanese security and the proposed seven-to-ten ratio

A question about giving Japan more ships leads to an explanation of how perceived respect and security could strengthen diplomatic factions.

Question

Would giving Japan the larger treaty ratio still lead it to war in 1941?

Short answer

It might reduce the pressure toward confrontation by improving Japan's sense of security and diplomatic standing, although later war would still depend on many decisions.

Notes

A seven-to-ten ratio could preserve British and American numerical superiority while meeting Japan's stated minimum. Japan had fought on the Allied side in the First World War, yet the historical settlement was experienced as punishment and compounded the loss of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. The outcome is not deterministic, but a settlement seen as respectful could give pro-diplomacy voices more credibility against nationalist arguments that Japan had been treated as a defeated power. Fleet ratios could therefore affect domestic political coalitions as well as naval balance.