Why did Japan run short of experienced naval pilots by the later Pacific War?
Short answerIts training system was built around recoverable losses in China and did not replace aircrew fast enough for carrier warfare over the Pacific.
NotesThe answer ties Japan’s late-war pilot shortage to the assumptions behind its training and replacement system. Experience in China allowed aircrew to be recovered more readily when they came down over land or near friendly forces. Pacific carrier warfare placed pilots over vast distances of open ocean, where losses were harder to recover even when an aircraft was lost without the pilot being killed outright. A sustainable system would have withdrawn experienced aviators to train replacements and expanded the training pipeline before combat attrition destroyed its cadre.