Japanese expansion and the limits of forecasting

The historical treaty system helped Japan by limiting the naval competition that its economy otherwise struggled to sustain. Japanese personnel policy also waited until ships were built before recruiting the additional sailors needed to crew them. A larger allowance could therefore produce more battleships, carriers, cruisers, and naval aviation without automatically solving the money and manpower problems behind them. Greater strength might make Japan secure enough to act more cautiously, or it might add confidence without reducing insecurity and encourage more dangerous choices. The available evidence does not support choosing between those opposed political reactions or making confident projections beyond 1936.