The no-treaty scenario does not automatically make every part of the Imperial Japanese Navy stronger. Concentrating scarce industrial capacity on large capital ships could reduce the carriers, cruisers, and destroyers available for operations beginning in 1937. Trying to preserve the carrier force as well would deepen the pressure on the rest of the fleet. The result might be superior individual fast battleships but a less balanced force facing an American demand for numerical superiority in its own fast-battleship program.
Notable Point · 1:44:17-1:45:16
The opportunity cost of Japanese super-battleships
An earlier Japanese capital-ship program could produce impressive headline ships while weakening the carrier, cruiser, and destroyer balance needed for an effective fleet.