Japan without the China war: richer but farther from its objectives

What changes if Japan avoids the Second Sino-Japanese War but still attacks in 1941?

Japan is economically stronger but lacks forward bases, making the Philippines and southern advance slower and logistically more exposed.

Japan could still strike Pearl Harbor, but attacks on the Philippines, Malaya, and Singapore would begin from a weaker geographic position. A China spared the prolonged war would also enter the crisis in better condition and might cooperate more closely with Britain. Royal Navy submarines could operate from Hong Kong as well as Singapore while surface forces guarded the Indian Ocean approach. Longer supply lines toward the Dutch East Indies or Australia would face those Allied bases, submarines, and a potentially active British fleet.