What difference would an early Italian aircraft carrier have made?
Short answerEven a fighter-heavy carrier would have made Swordfish strikes more difficult and given the Italian fleet its own air defence and scouting.
NotesThe effect depends on whether Italy fields a 10,000-, 15,000-, or 27,000-ton carrier and what air group it carries. Even a fighter-heavy fleet-defence ship gives the Regia Marina organic scouting and complicates British freedom of action. Swordfish attacks become harder, weakening the chain of events that produced successes such as Cape Matapan. The Royal Navy must also find, contain, and destroy a new high-priority target. Britain's own carrier-construction pause makes that extra demand especially costly because ships delayed for months or years cannot be improvised back into the campaign.